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We develop a new method for deriving minimal state variable (MSV) equilibria of a general class of Markov switching rational expectations models and a new algorithm for computing these equilibria. We compare our approach to previo...
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We develop a new method for deriving minimal state variable (MSV) equilibria of a general class of Markov switching rational expectations models and a new algorithm for computing these equilibria. We compare our approach to previously known algorithms, and we demonstrate that ours is both efficient and more reliable than previous methods in the sense that it is able to find MSV equilibria that previously known algorithms cannot. Further, our algorithm can find all possible MSV equilibria in models. This feature is essential if one is interested in using a likelihood based approach to estimation.
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Housing affordability is an important component of economic development. It affects several levers for regional growth, including business formation, through wealth building and influencing entrepreneurship. Housing affordability ...
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Housing affordability is an important component of economic development. It affects several levers for regional growth, including business formation, through wealth building and influencing entrepreneurship. Housing affordability also affects location decisions—of both labor and employers. These proceedings document findings from research presented at a conference titled “The Impact of Housing Affordability on Economic Development and Regional Labor Markets” sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. The analysis presented at the conference suggests that higher-cost housing can trigger productive workers to leave markets and may limit the ability of workers, especially African American workers, to enter the labor market. At the same time, large economic development projects can displace workers. Research suggests that land use regulation is a driver of housing affordability; typically, higher levels of regulation lead to higher costs. Also, the efforts of economic developers affect local policies, like regulation and zoning, to attract firms. Discussion at the conference suggested housing issues be more integral to economic development policy and that new and expanded measures of housing affordability be used to track affordability.
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Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) are widely used for policy analysis and to provide stylized facts for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models; yet no workable rank conditions to ascertain whether an SVAR is ...
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Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) are widely used for policy analysis and to provide stylized facts for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models; yet no workable rank conditions to ascertain whether an SVAR is globally identified have been established. Moreover, when nonlinear identifying restrictions are used, no efficient algorithms exist for small-sample estimation and inference. This paper makes four contributions towards filling these important gaps in the literature. First, we establish general rank conditions for global identification of both identified and exactly identified models. These rank conditions are sufficient for general identification and are necessary and sufficient for exact identification. Second, we show that these conditions can be easily implemented and that they apply to a wide class of identifying restrictions, including linear and certain nonlinear restrictions. Third, we show that the rank condition for exactly identified models amounts to a straightforward counting exercise. Fourth, we develop efficient algorithms for small-sample estimation and inference, especially for SVARs with nonlinear restrictions.
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Abstract Using transaction data from a US consumer payments diary, we revisit the credit card debt puzzle—a scenario in which households revolve credit card debt while also keeping liquid assets as bank account deposits. This sce...
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Abstract Using transaction data from a US consumer payments diary, we revisit the credit card debt puzzle—a scenario in which households revolve credit card debt while also keeping liquid assets as bank account deposits. This scenario is very common: 42 percent of consumers in our sample were borrower-savers in 2019. We explain the puzzle by showing that consumers need their liquid assets to pay household bills and other necessary expenses, including mortgage or rent. More than 80 percent of bills by value were paid out of bank accounts and could not be charged to credit cards, so bank account balances were needed to cover those basic expenses. On average, borrower-savers’ credit card debt exceeded their liquid assets. The average borrower-saver carried almost $6,400 in unpaid credit card debt and had $5,400 in liquid assets. On average, the value of their liquid assets could cover only about 60 percent of their unpaid debt plus monthly bills. In almost every category of assets or debts, borrower-savers were worse off financially than savers. Thus, the differences between borrower-savers and savers are much broader than just their credit card debt and bank account balances; they extend to mortgage debt and home equity. Carrying a mortgage or other debt (such as auto or educational loans) is associated with a higher probability of revolving on a credit card, suggesting that various types of household debt might be complements rather than substitutes. We do not find evidence that either financial literacy scores or the “Big 5” personality traits predict whether a consumer is a borrower-saver. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, bor-savs’ behavior was consistent with what we would expect under our explanation for the credit card puzzle. However, consumers’ unpaid credit card debt decreased, and their liquid assets increased, so the fraction of borrower-savers dropped to 35 percent of the sample.
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The U.S. interbank market essentially disappeared as the reserve supply dra-matically increased after the 2007-2008 crisis. We build a model to study whether the interbank market can revive if the reserve supply decreases suf-fici...
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The U.S. interbank market essentially disappeared as the reserve supply dra-matically increased after the 2007-2008 crisis. We build a model to study whether the interbank market can revive if the reserve supply decreases suf-ficiently. The market may not revive due to balance sheet costs associated with recent banking regulations. Although interbank volume may initially increase as reserves decline from abundant levels, the balance sheet costs may engender changes in market structure that completely replace interbank trading by nonbank lending to banks. This nonmonotonic response could lead to misleading forecasts about future interbank volumes.
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We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely re...
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We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross‐sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the underlying factor space. Numerical examples illustrate the significant economic costs of erroneously committing to a parsimoniously parameterized factor space that is informed by standard metrics of goodness‐of‐fit. Our results apply to other assets with a finite maturity structure.
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In this paper, we have attempted to make two main points. First, while the concept of mortgage "affordability" is often used in explanations of the current rise in mortgage defaults, this concept is not helpful if it is not define...
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In this paper, we have attempted to make two main points. First, while the concept of mortgage "affordability" is often used in explanations of the current rise in mortgage defaults, this concept is not helpful if it is not defined precisely. Many people believe that the affordability of a mortgage is adequately summarized in the DTI at origination. However, this ratio does not appear to be a strong predictor of default. What really matters in the default decision is the mortgage payment relative to the borrower's income in the present and future, not the borrower's income in the past.
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We develop a technique to assess the impact of changes in mortgage markets on households, exploiting an implication of the permanent income hypothesis: The higher a household's expected future income, the higher its desired consum...
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We develop a technique to assess the impact of changes in mortgage markets on households, exploiting an implication of the permanent income hypothesis: The higher a household's expected future income, the higher its desired consumption, ceteris paribus. With perfect credit markets, desired consumption matches actual consumption and current spending forecasts future income. Because credit market imperfections mute this effect, the extent to which house spending predicts future income measures the "imperfectness" of mortgage markets. Using micro-data, we find that since the early 1980s, mortgage markets have become less imperfect in this sense, and securitization has played an important role.
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We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking pa...
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We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that a preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns, as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy.
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We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological m...
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We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP.
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